FOCUS FUTURE: SELF-DETERMINATION ACCORDING TO FLORENCE GAUB
AVIAIR: You are probably asked this often, but we take the liberty to ask anyway because it interests us: Did you always want to write a book?
Florence Gaub: Actually, no one has ever asked me that (laughs). I am often asked why I wrote this book, but not if I always wanted to write one. Yes, I always wanted to write a book, even as a child. I was an avid reader and wrote a lot, especially stories. Then I wanted to become a journalist and left fiction behind, at least for a while. But yes, I always wanted to write, and of course, preferably a book. My first book was in a sense my doctoral thesis. Writing "Zukunft: Eine Bedienungsanleitung" was the most enjoyable for me because with each book you write, you free yourself more from guidelines.
AVIAIR: How did you come to write a practical guide, something less academic and more practical?
Florence Gaub: I spent my entire career in applied science and was never employed at a university. Therefore, I always had the mandate to explain things clearly, especially to decision-makers. I often compare it to an opera singer performing in a bar – the technique is the same, but the audience is different. We cannot be snobs and are judged by how well we are understood. This book came about because I noticed that many people are fundamentally pessimistic, regardless of the context. This is particularly widespread in Germany and Europe. I wanted to show how one can manage their own future capabilities because many people run on autopilot or let others dictate their future.
AVIAIR: In your book you talk about the need to collect data and mental input to plan and improve our future. Do you believe that educated people have better chances for a better future than those from less educated backgrounds? How much influence does individual effort have?
Florence Gaub: I believe everyone has the potential for a future, regardless of their background. Studies show that people who have gone through hardships are often better at imagining various futures because they had to navigate through more possibilities. It’s not just about the data you have, but how you use it. Experts are not necessarily better at predicting events; it’s about the mindset. Being open to change and actively seeking information that challenges your own views is crucial.
AVIAIR: How do you explain the phenomenon, as mentioned in your book, that we are quite optimistic about our own future but pessimistic about the future of society?
Florence Gaub: It's an interesting phenomenon that isn't just common in Germany. There are also interesting exceptions, such as populist voters, who often have a bleak view of both their personal and national future. Our collective pessimism stems from the fact that we, as a society, are not particularly future-oriented. Our political discourse has become less long-term since 2000. There is a study on contributions and legislative proposals in the Bundestag that shows the word "future" appears less frequently, starting from the year 2000. We seem to think less long-term and future-oriented. The end of the Cold War also played a role in this development. The end of the conflict gave us the impression that we no longer have to fight, we have won. So, we are stuck in a permanent present loop, focusing more on immediate problems than long-term goals. The internet and the media in general reinforce this pessimism by highlighting negative news, distorting our perception.
It would be better to look forward to a positive future, as a small example shows: When asked whether people prefer Friday or Sunday, they usually choose Friday, even though Sunday is the day they don’t have to work. It’s the anticipation of the weekend that makes Friday more enjoyable. Looking forward to the future can make people happier. It’s important to regularly think about the future, both personally and collectively.
THE HUMAN BEING IS THE CREATURE CAPABLE OF IMAGINING THE FUTURE IN SUCH DETAIL THAT THEY CAN BRING IT INTO EXISTENCE.
Florence Gaub
AVIAIR: Are you religious?
Florence Gaub: I am agnostic. I am not an atheist, but I have many questions. I don’t have the convictions of someone who is deeply religious.
AVIAIR: As a big science fiction fan, do you believe in life on other planets?
Florence Gaub: There are now two schools of thought on this topic. Some say that extraterrestrials are so far away that we cannot hear them, and this will remain the case for a long time because our technology isn’t advanced enough.
The other school says that the aliens want nothing to do with us and hide from us. I tend to believe that we are alone, which makes our existence even more significant.
AVIAIR: Future research also includes trend analysis. How do you identify emerging trends?
Florence Gaub: It varies. The USA, for example, is leading with its Global Trends Report. Their teams travel the world and consult experts who are very close to topics and new developments. This way, you can detect new developments very early, even when they are just weak signals. Thanks to AI, we now also have the ability to scan larger datasets. We always look for something new because a trend is a break from the present. We also work with experts who spend all day dealing with their topic and quickly notice changes and new developments.
The Arab Spring, for example. What was new about the Arab Spring? The use of social media or the spread of information through social media was not new. What was new was that most people in the region suddenly had smartphones thanks to Android, which, unlike the iPhone, were affordable. Suddenly, smartphones were financially accessible to many people. This could have been recognized as a trend in 2008: yes, this will lead to people suddenly having access to the internet. This allows them to quickly exchange information with other groups. But if you don’t recognize it, the wave comes in 2011, and you are surprised.
AVIAIR: Would you say future trends are often received too negatively? Take AI as an example: does the negativity towards AI become a missed opportunity?
Florence Gaub: Absolutely. Fear paralyzes people and prevents them from engaging with new technologies. If I remember correctly, not even 30% of people have ever used ChatGPT. While AI poses risks, it also offers enormous benefits. This is comparable to electricity. It changed human life in many ways for the better, but it also has negative effects because electricity can be very dangerous. Similarly, AI has enormous potential, especially from a research perspective.
AVIAIR: In your book, you write that strategic foresight is more art than science. Can you elaborate on that?
Florence Gaub: There are clear methods in future research, but the creative input of the researcher is crucial. It’s about bringing in your own perspective and mindset, much like an artist. The individuality of the researcher shapes the outcomes, making strategic foresight a blend of science and art.
AVIAIR: Is there a question you wish you were asked more often?
Florence Gaub: That is an interesting question (thinks for a moment). A question that sometimes comes up but is too rare: What advice would I give to someone who wants to engage more with the future? Self-discovery is the first step. Be it through journaling, therapy, or whatever. You need to know who you are before you can work on future capabilities. Creativity is also important. One should engage with a variety of sources, from serious to whimsical, playfully approach the topic, and always keep a bit of humor.
AVIAIR: Would you say that “Zukunft: Eine Bedienungsanleitung” is also a guide to a happier life?
Florence Gaub: Absolutely. Taking our future into our own hands starts with imagining it and feeling self-efficacy. For example, if I want a specific job but don’t apply for anything and don’t do any further training, then I feel depressed. The action alone actually makes you happier, but only through future thinking you’ll get to the action.
AVIAIR: Do you have a practical tip for planning your own future?
Florence Gaub: You should take the time once a year to think about the future, the longer term. Because people spend 50% of their day thinking about the near future, like tomorrow, in two hours, etc. But it’s important to also think about the next 10 or even 20 years, as a collective (club, company, etc.) at least the next 30 years and beyond.
Interview by Sabine Kühlwetter Meiers
5 QUICK QUESTIONS
Classic book or audiobook?
Classic book.
Beer or wine?
Wine.
Rome or Paris?
Difficult! Paris.
Where do you see yourself in 25 years?
I need to do some quick math. At just over 70, hopefully still on a surfboard, with a dog, and surrounded by my family.
What's the best place for pasta in Rome?
Taverna Romana in Monti.
